The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany increased 0.8 percent in October to 107.1 (2004 = 100), following a 0.7 percent increase in September, and a 0.9 percent increase in August.
At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Germany, a measure of current economic activity, increased 0.3 percent in October to 104.4 (2004 = 100), following a 0.2 percent decline in September, and a 0.2 percent increase in August.
The Conference Board LEI for Germany has been on a rising trend for one and a half years now, amid widespread strength among its components. However, its six-month growth rate has moderated recently. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for Germany rose this month, after remaining essentially unchanged in the third quarter. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that economic activity should continue expanding, though perhaps at a moderate pace in the near term.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading and coincident economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading or coincident indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.
|The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Germany include:|
|New Orders, Investment Goods|
|Yield Spread cumulated, 10 year minus 3 month|
|Change in Inventories|
|Gross Enterprise and Property Income|
|New Orders, Residential Construction|
|Consumer Confidence Index|
About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.
For more information including full press release and technical notes:
For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:
|Summary Table of Composite Indexes|
|Aug||Sep||Oct||Apr to Oct|
|Leading Economic Index (LEI)||105.6 r||106.3 p||107.1 p|
|Percent Change||0.9 r||0.7 p||0.8 p||3.9 p|
|Coincident Economic Index (CEI)||104.3||104.1 r||104.4|
|Percent Change||0.2||-0.2 r||0.3||1.0|
|n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised|
|Indexes equal 100 in 2004|
|Source: The Conference Board All Rights Reserved|
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