The Conference Board Leading Economic Index ® (LEI) for Japan declined 0.4 percent in December to 93.4 (2004 = 100), following a 0.5 percent decline in November, and a 1.4 percent decline in October.

At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index ® (CEI) for Japan, a measure of current economic activity, increased 0.4 percent in December to 97.6 (2004 = 100), following a 0.3 percent decline in November, and a 0.8 percent decline in October.

The Conference Board LEI for Japan continued to fall in December. However, this month’s decrease was the smallest in the last four months, and the six-month decline in the index has also become somewhat less severe. At the same time, The Conference Board CEI for Japan increased in December for the first time since April 2010, although its six-month growth rate remains negative. Taken together, the behavior of the composite indexes suggests that economic activity is likely to remain weak in the coming months.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Japan

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading and coincident economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading or coincident indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Japan include:

Operating Profits
Dwelling Units Started
Business Failures
Index of Overtime Worked
Stock Prices (TOPIX)
Six-Month Growth Rate of Labor Productivity
Tankan Business Conditions Survey
Money Supply
Yield Spread
New Orders for Machinery and Construction

For more information including full press release and technical notes:

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is an independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.

Summary Table of Composite Ec onomic Indexes
2010 6-month
Oct Nov Dec Jun to Dec
Leading Economic index (LEI) 94.3 p 93.8 p 93.4 p
Percent Change -1.4 p -0.5 p -0.4 p -2.8 p
Diffusion 15.0 50.0 30.0 70.0
Coincident Economic Index (CEI) 97.5 p 97.2 p 97.6 p
Percent Change -0.8 p -0.3 p 0.4 p -1.2 p
Diffusion 0.0 37.5 75.0 25.0
n.a. Not available   p Preliminary   r Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 2004
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CONTACT: Carol Courter, +1-732-672-2817,, of The Conference

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